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Notes From Divisional Round Games

Posted by Mike Wobschall on January 14, 2013 – 2:53 pm

The Divisional round of the playoffs is typically my favorite weekend of NFL football every year. There are two games on both Saturday and Sunday, so basically you’re whole day each day is about football. Plus the 8 teams playing are all legitimately good teams because 4 of them had 1st-round byes and the other 4 have already won a playoff game.

This year’s Divisional round games lived up to the hype. We had a double-overtime upset to start things off on Saturday and then we saw San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick put together a performance for the ages in defeating our rivals (Green Bay) for a nightcap. On Sunday, the action got going right at noon CT with Seattle nearly completing an improbable comeback but then falling short on a last-second FG by Falcons K Matt Bryant. The last game of the weekend was another masterpiece by New England QB Tom Brady as he out-dueled a talented Houston Texans team that just wouldn’t go away.

When all was said and done, this past weekend’s game combined for 276 points, making it the highest scoring postseason weekend in NFL history. I believe it’s great timing for the NFL, too, because my sense is more eyes are on the NFL on Divisional round weekend than any other weekend of the season, barring the Super Bowl and maybe the NFL draft.

Let’s get to a few notes I took while watching each of this weekend’s games…

Baltimore Ravens 38, Denver Broncos 35 (2OT)
– It’s not often when you see a special teams TD and a defensive TD in the same game. But we had both in the 1st quarter of this nail biter, with each team getting in on the action. Denver’s Trindon Holliday took a punt back 90 yards to open the scoring, and then Baltimore CB Corey Graham returned a tipped Peyton Manning pass 39 yards to put the Ravens up 14-7 early in the game. Then to open the 2nd half, Holliday struck again for Denver by racing 104 yards for a kickoff return TD to give the Broncos a 28-21 lead.
– Manning may not throw a great spiral, but he can still fit the ball into tight spaces, and he can do it with consistency. His first 2 TD passes – one to Brandon Stokely and another Knowshon Moreno – were great throws that were put right on the money, with little room for error on both occasions.
– How about the Joe Flacco-to-Torrey Smith connection? Wow, impressive. They kept Baltimore in the game during the 1st half with a pair of long TD connections. I remember the knock on Smith coming out of college was his hands – he would drop routine passes on a consistent basis (a problem for a, you know, wide receiver). And he had the problem even as a rookie. But he’s obviously fixed those issues. It’s also notable that Smith had his success on Saturday against a future Hall of Fame CB in Champ Bailey.
– It’s fair to question John Fox’s decision to try a 52-yard FG with just over a minute to go in the 2nd quarter. Just 3 plays earlier he elected to go for it on 4th down rather than try a long FG, and the decision to try the 52-yarder was after gaining just 3 yards following the 4th-down conversion. The missed FG gave Baltimore possession with great field position, and they would up tying the game before halftime. It’s also fair to question Fox’s decision to kneel on the ball with 31 seconds left in the 4th quarter, the game tied, 2 timeouts at his disposal and Manning on his side. I can see both sides of the coin on this one, but with Manning running the show and 2 timeouts in your pocket, it seems like a reasonable risk to take at that stage in the game.
– Baltimore’s defense may be getting older, but they can still defend the run. At the end of the 3rd quarter, Baltimore had the momentum and I think a large reason why is the way their defense played against the run. Credit also goes to the pass rush for pressuring Manning and forcing a fumble that set up the game-tying TD near the end of the 3rd quarter.
– The classic “throw across your body” INT near the end of the first overtime was obviously a turning point in the game. And it came from one of the greatest QBs to play the game – Manning. Vikings fans are familiar with this mistake because Brett Favre made it during the NFC title game after the 2009 season and Christian Ponder made the same mistake in Week 13 against the Green Bay Packers. Every QB – from young, inexperienced QBs to decorated, veteran QBs – makes this mistake frequently. Most times, the mistake doesn’t result in a turnover, and most times when it does result in a turnover it’s not in as big a spot as Manning was in on Saturday. But this time for Manning, it was in a big spot and it cost the Broncos the game because Baltimore kicked the game-winning FG just a few moments later.

 

San Francisco 49ers 45, Green Bay Packers 31
– You have to give Colin Kaepernick a lot of credit for rebounding the way he did after throwing a pick-6 on the first drive. The game could’ve gone the wrong way very quickly for San Francisco after that interception, but it clearly went the right way. Kaepernick was brilliant, rushing for 181 yards and 2 TDs on 16 carries and going 17 of 31 for 263 yards with 2 more TDs and 1 INT.
– On a similar note, 49ers Head Coach Jim Harbaugh deserves credit, too, because he made the tough call of benching Alex Smith, who had been playing well, for the 2nd-year youngster. It was a much-maligned decision, but it paid dividends down the stretch and it was the reason San Francisco won the game. I have respect for Smith and the way he plays the game and the way San Francisco plays with him under center, but I don’t see the 49ers winning that game without Kaepernick taking the snaps.
– Green Bay’s run defense has been suspect all season, and it killed them in this game. The 49ers had 323 rushing yards on 43 attempts, an average of 7.5 yards per carry.
– The muffed punt by Jeremy Ross was a huge turning point in the game. Ross was effective as a returning against the Vikings in Week 17, so you can understand why Green Bay chose to go with him as their returner as opposed to Randall Cobb, who handled those duties for most of the season. Unfortunately for Ross and for Green Bay, his mistake in the 2nd quarter that gave the 49ers the ball inside the 10 with Green Bay already ahead by a TD turned the game in favor of San Francisco.
– What can you say about San Francisco’s defense? They are good-to-great on every level of the defense, from Aldon Smith and Justin Smith up front, to NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis in the middle to a very talented secondary that includes a top-notch safety tandem in Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner along with Carlos Rogers and Co. at CB. That’s a championship-caliber defense, for sure, and it’ll be fun to watch them battle Atlanta in the NFC title game, the second consecutive NFC title game for this 49ers team.
– I am more and more impressed with Packers WR James Jones the more I see him. I think it’s a widely unknown fact that he led the NFL in receiving TDs this season – not Calvin Johnson, not AJ Green, not one of those Atlanta WRs. It was James Jones, with 14.
– It almost took you aback at the end of the game when the FOX cameras were showing Donald Driver and Greg Jennings sitting helpless on the sidelines. Those two have been staples on good Green Bay teams for many years, and it appears now that they’ve played their final game in those colors. Driver may even retire now, and Jennings appears set to hit free agency in search of another team.

 

Atlanta Falcons 30, Atlanta Falcons 28
– When you lead by 20 points at the start of the 4th quarter, you should not have to drive 41 yards in 23 seconds to attempt a game-winning 49-yard FG. But that’s exactly what happened to Atlanta. Credit their offense and special teams group for getting the job done in the final moments, but you can be sure they’ll take a good, long look at the final 15 minutes to see what went wrong.
– One thing that I thought went wrong was Atlanta’s playcalling. I’m typically not one to question playcalling after a game because there is so much that goes into this part of the game that outsiders have no idea about, but there were times in the final quarter when it was as if Atlanta had forgotten they had a double-digit lead and time was on their side.
– With that being said, Atlanta running the ball so well in the 1st half was an underrated aspect of this game. The highlight was when Jacquizz Rodgers steamrolled through Seattle S Earl Thomas along the way to a 45-yard run at the end of the 1st quarter.
– Atlanta had a great mix of playcalling all 1st half, and perhaps the best illustration was the 50-yard TD pass from Ryan to White just moments after the Falcons defense forced a turnover on downs following Seattle’s ill-fated decision to go for it on 4th and 1. Going for the jugular was a great call by Atlanta, especially because they were in control of the game and had shown an ability to convert on 3rd down the entire 1st half.
– Seattle going for it on 4th and 1 from inside the 15 in the middle of the 2nd quarter was a mistake. Some will point to the decision being Pete Carroll showing confidence in his team, but it’s a 13-0 game in the 1st half and points are clearly at a premium. Why turn down 3 of them, especially when Atlanta has settled for a pair of FGs themselves? It’s always easy to second-guess playcalling decisions after the fact, but even before that snap it was apparent to me that Seattle was making a mistake by turning down a high-percentage FG to go for it on 4th and 1.
– Atlanta’s receivers were so good on the boundary against Seattle. Several tip-toe catches along the sidelines and endlines were impressive. When receivers are able to make those kinds of plays, they are a great weapon for their offense and they can make an already very good QB in Matt Ryan that much better.
– Seattle CB Richard Sherman made two key plays on opening drive, knocking down a pass from Matt Ryan to Roddy White on the first snap of the game and then doing so again later in the drive to break up what would’ve been a TD reception by White. Later in the 1st half, Sherman defended yet another deep pass from Ryan to White. It was an impressive first 1.5 quarters for Sherman. Later in the 2nd quarter, though, White got over the top of him and scored a long TD.
– While the Vikings clearly made a great decision in selecting Blair Walsh in last April’s draft and watching him have a historic rookie season, I think Vikings fans will always have a place in their hearts for Ryan Longwell. So it was cool to see him on the Seahawks roster for a playoff game this past weekend.

 

New England Patriots 41, Houston Texans 28
– If before the game you would’ve told me that Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski would be lost for the remainder of the contest in the early stages of the 1st quarter and Houston would score 28 points in the game, I might have guessed Houston could pull the upset. But it would’ve been a bad, bad guess, and it’s all because of how good Tom Brady is. The 3-time Super Bowl winner put together another classic performances, guiding New England to 41 points while going 25 of 40 for 344 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs. My favorite moment of the game came when Brady delivered a pass with pinpoint accuracy to RB Shane Vereen in the front left corner of the end zone for a 33-yard score, giving the Patriots a38-13 lead early in the 4th quarter. There was literally no celebration from Brady as he trotted back to the sidelines. Just a straight-forward, assassin-like approach from Captain Cool as he salted away yet another postseason victory. Brady is now the NFL record-holder for career postseason wins.
– New England got tremendous production from their RBs. Vereen had 124 total yards and 3 TDs while Stevan Ridley had 95 yards and 1 TD.
– A lot of questions have been raised about Matt Schaub’s ability to lead Houston to the ultimate goal – a Super Bowl title. I’m not sure those questions are fair. Is Schaub an elite player? No, not with consistency. But he’s most certainly a “B” level player with consistency, and if you had an entire team of “B” level players you’d win a lot of Super Bowls. So I won’t place the blame for Houston’s lack of Super Bowl titles in recent years entirely on Schaub. Yes, it’s reasonable to want your QB to put the team on his shoulders and win a game by himself for you. But the fact that Schaub hasn’t done that yet doesn’t mean he’s not the right guy in Houston. It just means the players around him also have to play better.
– I’m sure New England is not pleased with the fact that they were unable to put the game away for good after the 33-yard Brady-to-Vereen hookup early in the 4th quarter. Houston responded quickly with a pair of TDs and a 2-point conversion to pull within 10 points at around the 5-minute mark. Obviously the Patriots eventually pulled away and advanced, but that New England made enough mistakes to allow Houston to remain in the game late will be part of Bill Belichick’s coaching/motivating strategy this week. Not something the Baltimore Ravens will be thanking the Houston Texans for on Sunday in the AFC title game.


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A Look At The Vikings Draft Position

Posted by Mike Wobschall on January 14, 2013 – 11:31 am

After finishing the regular season with a 10-6 record and then losing in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, the Vikings have been slotted in 23rd position for the 1st round of the 2013 NFL Draft. The Vikings currently have 7 other choices in the remaining 6 rounds of the draft, though, and they don’t have the 23rd selection in each of the remaining rounds.

Here are the picks the Vikings currently possess for the 2013 NFL Draft:
1st round: #23
2nd round: #22
3rd round: #21
4th round: #5 (Detroit’s) and #23
5th round: #22
6th round: #21 – Traded away
7th round: #7 (Arizona’s) and #23

Let us (try to) explain.

With how the regular season and Wild Card rounds played out for the 2012 season and in conjunction with the NFL’s procedure for determining draft order, the losers of this season’s Wild Card games will select in the 21st through 24th positions in all rounds, according to the reverse order of their (regular season) standing. Essentially, this means that regardless of their regular season records, the four teams that lost in this year’s Wild Card round (Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Washington) will select in the 21st through 24th positions, with their default position being ranked according to regular season record.

[As an aside, it’s interesting to note that even if one of those four teams happened to have a worse record than another team who didn't make the playoffs, they would still be slotted after that team in the draft order. That scenario didn't unfold this year, but it is possible in theory.]

As stated above, while the Vikings hold the 23rd overall pick in this year’s draft, they will not actually have the 23rd selection in each round of this year’s draft.

According to the procedure the NFL uses to determine draft order: “In ties that involve three or more clubs, the club at the top of a tied segment in a given round will move to the bottom of the segment for the next round, while all other clubs in the segment move up one position. This rotation continues throughout the Draft.”

Our interpretation of that language yields the conclusion that the Vikings will then rotate with three o two other teams – the Bengals and Redskins. Indianapolis was the fourth team that lost on Wild Card weekend, but they finished with one more win that Cincinnati, Minnesota and Washington, so they’ll be slotted at 24th.

As such, the Vikings will have the 23rd selection in the 1st round, the 22nd selection in the 2nd round, the 21st selection in the 3rd round, the 23rd selection in the 4th round, the 22nd selection in the 5th round, the 21st selection in the 6th round (which was traded away) and the 23rd selection in the 7th round.

In addition to those choices, the Vikings also have the 5th pick of the 4th round (from Detroit) and the 7th pick of the 7th round (from Arizona).


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